Frequency Analysis of Daily Reservoir Inflow for Dam-Break Boundary Conditions: A Case Study of the Cirata-Ir. H. Djuanda Serial Dam System
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35334/be.v10i2.857Keywords:
Dam-break, frequency analysis, Gumbel distribution, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, reservoir inflowAbstract
Dam-break modeling requires reliable design inflow hydrographs as upstream boundary conditions. This study performs frequency analysis of daily historical inflow data from two serial dams in the Citarum River Basin, Indonesia; Cirata Dam (1991–2025, 35 years) and Ir. H. Djuanda Dam (2016–2025, 10 years); using the Gumbel and Log Pearson III distributions under a daily-calendar frequency approach. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test at α = 0.05 significance level. For Cirata Dam, the Gumbel distribution was accepted for all 365 calendar days (100%), whereas Log Pearson III was accepted for 295 days (80.8%) with 70 days rejected. For Ir. H. Djuanda Dam, with its limited 10-year record, Gumbel was accepted for all 365 days (100%) and Log Pearson III for 363 days (99.5%). The derived Q₁₀₀ design hydrograph yields peak discharges of 894.21 m³/s for Cirata Dam (March 19) and 1,254.46 m³/s for Ir. H. Djuanda Dam (November 12) based on the Gumbel distribution. The consistent superiority of the two-parameter Gumbel model, particularly evident in the longer Cirata record where the K-S test has stronger discriminatory power, demonstrates that the additional skewness parameter of Log Pearson III introduces estimator instability rather than improved fit for daily reservoir inflow series at moderate sample sizes (n ≤ 35). These synthetic hydrographs provide a hydrologically defensible upstream boundary condition for subsequent two-dimensional dam-break simulations using HEC-RAS.
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