THE COMPARISON OF RUPIAH AND RINGGIT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AGAINST THE US DOLLAR(A Case Study of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Growth on Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Exchange Rate)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35334/6x8spe48Keywords:
Exchange Rate; Inflation; Interest Rate; Economic Growth; Foreign Exchange Reserves; Rupiah-Ringgit-Dollar.Abstract
Abstract: This study aimed to analyze and compare the influence of differences in inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and foreign exchange reserves on the volatility of Rupiah and Ringgit exchange rates against the US Dollar. The study used a quantitative approach with quarterly time series data for the period of 2015–2024. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression, path analysis, the Sobel test, and a mean difference test using Eviews. The analysis results showed that in Indonesia, inflation (X1.1) does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, with a probability value of 0.1612, nor on the exchange rate, at 0.4740. Interest rates (X2.1) have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, at 0.0006, and on the exchange rate, at 0.0000. Economic growth (X3.1) does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, with a probability value of 0.3736, nor on the exchange rate, at 0.8897. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves have a significant effect on the exchange rate, at 0.0123. In Malaysia, inflation (X1.2) has a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, with a probability value of 0.0009, but does not have a significant effect on the exchange rate, at 0.0055. Interest rate (X2.2) has a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, at 0.0000, and on the exchange rate, at 0.0054. Economic growth (X3.2) does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, with a probability value of 0.4172, nor on the exchange rate, at 0.9748. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves do not have a significant effect on the exchange rate, with a probability value of 0.7906. The Sobel test results showed that foreign exchange reserves do not mediate the effects of the three variables on the exchange rate in either country. Furthermore, the difference-test results indicate that inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate differ significantly. Meanwhile, economic growth, with a probability value of 0.7692, and foreign exchange reserves, with a probability value of 0.3100, are not significantly different. In general, interest rates are the most consistent factor affecting foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate stability in both Indonesia and Malaysia.
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