THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON INDONESIA'S FOREIGN TRADE SECTOR

DAMPAK PANDEMIK COVID-19 PADA SEKTOR PERDAGANGAN LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA

Abstract

The study in this paper aims to see the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Indonesia's foreign trade sector. The Covid-19 pandemic has caused an economic slowdown not only for Indonesia but also for all countries in the world. One indicator of economic growth is the performance of exports and imports, which throughout 2020 experienced a negative growth of 2.6% or decreased by USD 4.376 million when compared to 2019. In overcoming this market failure and to maintain a positive trend in the trade balance, the Government has issuing various export and import policies through fiscal and non-fiscal stimulus. This paper uses a statistical analysis of trade and the DEA approach with the CCR-BCC model to see the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Indonesia's foreign trade performance for the period 2019-Q1 to.d. 2020-Q4 and look at the most efficient export destination countries for Indonesia's export market throughout 2020. The government's policy with a budget of IDR 22.5 trillion was able to provide a positive export-import trend in the 2020-Q3 s.d. 2020-Q4, with a trade surplus of USD 21.738 Million. The increase in imports of raw/auxiliary materials and capital goods used for production purposes is expected to increase production capacity or the supply side and is expected to create employment opportunities. Imports of consumer goods also increased, indicating that domestic consumption has started to improve. Export structure in 2019-Q1 s.d. 2020-Q4 dominated by non-oil and gas commodities compared to oil and gas commodities. DEA analysis using the CCR-BCC model which uses the importing country's GDP value as input and Indonesia's export volume as output for the 2020 period finds that Singapore is the most efficient main export destination country compared to 10 others. With the DEA-BCC model, it is also found that China, which is Indonesia's largest export destination country in 2020, remains an efficient export destination country.